Expert analysis

St Pauli and Wolfsburg Eye Controlled Encounter

St Pauli’s DDLD run reflects a side that keeps games tight through organized defending and limited forward output at home. Wolfsburg’s DWWD sequence includes periods of control that reduce open play and high scoring chances. Earlier meetings between the clubs have often finished with both teams cautious after the opening stages. St Pauli’s home scoring average sits below their season norm while Wolfsburg away results show a mixed record of finishing attacks. The four draws in the last six head to head fixtures point to balanced approaches rather than end to end action. Wolfsburg’s clean sheet rate of fifty percent suggests they can limit opponents effectively on the road. Overall trends favor matches where neither team creates enough clear opportunities for a goal rush.

Analysis by AcePredictor 73.2% win rate

Result

1–0 WON

Our pick “Under 3.5 Goals” at odds 1.45 won — final score 1–0.

Match timeline

First half
Lars Ritzka 4'
Cleiton Santana dos Santos 12'
Abdoulie Ceesay 32'
Second half
Bence Dárdai ↓ Muhammed Damar 65'
Jonas Adjetey ↓ Cleiton Santana dos Santos 65'
Adam Dźwigała ↓ Lars Ritzka 67'
Martijn Kaars ↓ Youssoupha Niang 70'
Yannick Gerhardt ↓ Kento Shiogai 74'
Maximilian Arnold ↓ Mattias Svanberg 74'
Tobias Strobl 78'
Alessio Besio ↓ Alexander Bernhardsson 82'
Joakim Maehle 85'
Joel Chima Fujita 88'
Taichi Hara ↓ Abdoulie Ceesay 90+1'
Samuel Klein ↓ Connor Metcalfe 90+1'

This season

	FC St. Pauli	VfL Wolfsburg
Over 2.5 goals	0%	50%
Clean sheet	0%	50%
Failed to score	0%	25%
Scored per game	1.5	2.5
Conceded per game	1.8	1.5
Scored home / away	1.0 / 2.0	2.0 / 3.0

Across 4 and 4 matches played this season.

League table position

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Pts
3	FCH 1. FC Heidenheim	4	3	0	1	9
4	VFL VfL Wolfsburg ▲	4	2	2	0	8
5	FCK 1. FC Kaiserslautern	4	2	2	0	8
6	VFL VfL Bochum	4	2	0	2	6
7	FCM 1. FC Magdeburg	4	2	0	2	6
8	VFL VfL Osnabrück	4	2	0	2	6
9	KAR Karlsruher SC	4	1	2	1	5
10	ARM Arminia Bielefeld	4	1	1	2	4
11	ENE Energie Cottbus	4	1	1	2	4
12	SPV SpVgg Greuther Fürth	4	1	1	2	4
13	HAN Hannover 96	4	1	1	2	4
14	EIN Eintracht Braunschweig	4	1	0	3	3
15	FCS FC St. Pauli ▲	4	0	3	1	3
16	HOL Holstein Kiel	4	0	3	1	3

Recent form · last 5 finished matches

FC St. Pauli DDLLD

D vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1–1 Aug 9

D @ Holstein Kiel 2–2 Aug 14

L @ Rot-Weiß Essen 0–2 Aug 23

L vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern 1–2 Aug 30

D @ Arminia Bielefeld 2–2 Sep 4

VfL Wolfsburg DWDWD

D vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern 0–0 Aug 8

W @ Hannover 96 1–0 Aug 16

D @ Altglienicke 3–3 Aug 24

W @ Karlsruher SC 5–2 Aug 29

D vs Energie Cottbus 4–4 Sep 5

Goals trend · last 5 matches

FC St. Pauli

Scored 1.2 avg

1 2 0 1 2

Conceded 1.8 avg

1 2 2 2 2

VfL Wolfsburg

Scored 2.6 avg

0 1 3 5 4

Conceded 1.8 avg

0 0 3 2 4

Head-to-head · last meetings

0 FC St. Pauli

4 Draws

2 VfL Wolfsburg

May 2026 FC St. Pauli 1–3 VfL Wolfsburg VfL Wolfsburg

Jan 2026 VfL Wolfsburg 2–1 FC St. Pauli VfL Wolfsburg

Mar 2025 VfL Wolfsburg 1–1 FC St. Pauli Draw

Oct 2024 FC St. Pauli 0–0 VfL Wolfsburg Draw

Apr 2011 VfL Wolfsburg 2–2 FC St. Pauli Draw

Over 2.5 goals in 3 of the last 6 meetings.

Confirmed lineups

FC St. Pauli 3-4-2-1

1 B. Voll G
4 D. Nemeth D
8 E. Smith D
21 L. Ritzka D
11 A. Pyrka M
16 J. Fujita M
20 M. Rasmussen M
23 L. Oppie M
24 C. Metcalfe M
7 Y. Niang M
9 Abdoulie Ceesay F

Bench Samuel Klein, M. Kaars, R. Jones, T. Hara, A. Dźwigała, S. Banks, E. Ahlstrand, D. Mitov, J. Westphal

M. Rapp

VfL Wolfsburg 4-3-3

30 J. Zieliński G
2 K. Fischer D
6 H. Wahl D
33 Cleiton D
21 J. Mæhle D
20 M. Damar M
5 Vinicius Souza M
32 M. Svanberg M
17 A. Bernhardsson F
7 K. Shiogai F
11 F. Reese F

Bench A. Zehnter, J. Adjetey, M. Arnold, A. Besio, Bence Dárdai, Y. Gerhardt, P. Hensel, B. Katz, P. Pervan

Tobias Strobl