Premier League MISSED 4–1
Mon, Sep 14 · 21:00 · Elland Road
Leeds Home
VS
Newcastle Away
Leeds vs Newcastle — Premier League
Tipster's pick Under 3.5 Goals
Value Strong · 4/5
Odds 1.40 Odds via Bet365
Our estimate74%
This price needs71%
Expert analysis

Defensive Form Points to Low Scoring Leeds Game

Leeds have shown a tight home defense this season with limited goals allowed in their matches. Newcastle carry an away attack that produces steady but not excessive output against organized sides. Their head to head record features mostly draws and narrow results that rarely explode into high tallies. Current forms of WDD for the hosts and DWD for the visitors indicate controlled build up play without frequent open exchanges. Both teams have avoided high goal counts in every fixture played so far this campaign. The pattern of limited over two and a half outcomes in past meetings adds context for another measured contest at Elland Road.

AcePredictor Analysis by AcePredictor 73.2% win rate
Result
4–1 MISSED

Our pick “Under 3.5 Goals” at odds 1.40 didn’t land — final score 4–1.

Match timeline
  1. First half
  2. Sean Steur ↓ Nico González 19'
  3. Lewis Miley Own goal 32'
  4. Jayden Bogle assist Dominic Calvert-Lewin 34'
  5. Dominic Calvert-Lewin 44'
  6. Dominic Calvert-Lewin assist Tarik Muharemovic 45+1'
  7. Second half
  8. Jacob Murphy 54'
  9. Bazoumana Touré ↓ Jacob Murphy 57'
  10. Joe Willock ↓ Matias Fernandez-Pardo 57'
  11. Valentino Livramento ↓ Amar Dedić 58'
  12. Noah Okafor 59'
  13. Harry Wilson ↓ Noah Okafor 72'
  14. Brenden Aaronson ↓ Ao Tanaka 72'
  15. Melvin Bard ↓ Gabriel Gudmundsson 72'
  16. Lukas Nmecha ↓ Dominic Calvert-Lewin 78'
  17. Aladji Bamba ↓ Lewis Miley 80'
  18. Daniel James ↓ Jayden Bogle 83'
  19. Sean Longstaff ↓ Anton Stach 88'
  20. Bazoumana Touré assist Valentino Livramento 90'
  21. Valentino Livramento 90+1'
This season
Leeds Newcastle
Over 2.5 goals 0% 0%
Clean sheet 33% 33%
Failed to score 0% 0%
Scored per game 1.0 2.0
Conceded per game 0.7 1.3
Scored home / away 1.0 / 1.0 2.0 / 2.0

Across 3 and 3 matches played this season.

League table position
# Team PWDLPts
6 LIV Liverpool 3 1 2 0 5
7 NEW Newcastle ▲ 3 1 2 0 5
8 EVE Everton 3 1 2 0 5
9 LEE Leeds ▲ 3 1 2 0 5
10 BRI Brighton 3 1 1 1 4
Recent form · last 5 finished matches
Leeds WWDDL
W @ Nottingham Forest 1–0 Aug 22
W @ Nottingham Forest 2–0 Aug 25
D vs Brentford 1–1 Aug 30
D @ Brighton 1–1 Sep 5
L @ Chelsea 3–6 Sep 9
Newcastle DWWDW
D vs Liverpool 2–2 Aug 23
W vs West Brom 3–2 Aug 26
W @ Tottenham 2–0 Aug 29
D vs Bournemouth 2–2 Sep 5
W @ Millwall 1–0 Sep 8
Goals trend · last 5 matches
Leeds
Scored 1.6 avg
1 2 1 1 3
Conceded 1.6 avg
0 0 1 1 6
Newcastle
Scored 2.0 avg
2 3 2 2 1
Conceded 1.2 avg
2 2 0 2 0
Head-to-head · last meetings
2 Leeds
5 Draws
3 Newcastle
Jan 2026 Newcastle 4–3 Leeds Newcastle
Aug 2025 Leeds 0–0 Newcastle Draw
May 2023 Leeds 2–2 Newcastle Draw
Dec 2022 Newcastle 0–0 Leeds Draw
Jan 2022 Leeds 0–1 Newcastle Newcastle

Over 2.5 goals in 4 of the last 10 meetings.

Confirmed lineups
Leeds 3-5-2
  • 1 J. Trafford G
  • 24 J. Justin D
  • 30 N. Elvedi D
  • 5 T. Muharemović D
  • 2 J. Bogle M
  • 18 A. Stach M
  • 4 E. Ampadu M
  • 22 A. Tanaka M
  • 3 G. Gudmundsson M
  • 9 D. Calvert-Lewin F
  • 19 N. Okafor F
Bench M. Zetterer, B. Aaronson, J. Bahoya, M. Bard, J. Bijol, D. James, S. Longstaff, L. Nmecha, H. Wilson

D. Farke

Newcastle 4-2-3-1
  • 21 L. Horníček G
  • 37 A. Dedić D
  • 12 M. Thiaw D
  • 4 S. Botman D
  • 3 L. Hall D
  • 6 Nico González M
  • 67 L. Miley M
  • 23 J. Murphy M
  • 20 M. Fernandez-Pardo M
  • 11 H. Barnes M
  • 9 Y. Wissa F
Bench N. Pope, T. Livramento, F. Schär, A. Bamba, Sean Steur, B. Touré, J. Willock, J. Ramsey, M. Miley

Matthias Jaissle

Team news · injuries & suspensions
Leeds
  • OUT M. Joseph Knee Injury
  • OUT J. Rodon Muscle Injury
  • OUT M. Joseph Knee Injury
  • OUT J. Rodon Muscle Injury
Newcastle
  • OUT D. Burn Ankle Injury
  • OUT Joelinton Thigh Injury
  • OUT W. Osula Injury
  • DOUBT E. Jaouen Ankle Injury
  • OUT D. Burn Ankle Injury
  • OUT Joelinton Thigh Injury
  • OUT W. Osula Injury
  • DOUBT E. Jaouen Ankle Injury