Championship (England) PENDING
Sat, Sep 19 · 16:00 · Turf Moor
Burnley FC Home
VS
Derby Away
Burnley vs Derby — Championship
Tipster's pick Over 2.5 Goals
Value Good · 3/5
Odds 1.91 Odds via Bet365
Our estimate54%
This price needs52%
Expert analysis

Burnley and Derby Look Set for Open Game

Burnley have leaked goals at a high rate this campaign, with more than two conceded per match on average. Derby’s away scoring has reached one goal per match on average, adding to the potential for both sides to contribute. Historical meetings between these sides have produced several high scoring encounters. Burnley’s home goal tally stands above their overall average, suggesting they push forward more at home. Derby’s recent sequence includes several low scoring losses, yet their clean sheet rate remains low enough to allow openings. Both teams show patterns of conceding that point toward a game with multiple goals rather than a tight defensive battle.

AcePredictor Analysis by AcePredictor 72.6% win rate
This season
Burnley Derby
Over 2.5 goals 0% 0%
Clean sheet 0% 14%
Failed to score 0% 43%
Scored per game 1.1 0.9
Conceded per game 2.3 1.9
Scored home / away 1.3 / 1.0 0.8 / 1.0

Across 7 and 7 matches played this season.

League table position
# Team PWDLPts
21 CAR Cardiff 7 0 4 3 4
22 DER Derby 7 1 1 5 4
23 PRE Preston 7 1 0 6 3
24 BUR Burnley 7 0 3 4 3
Recent form · last 5 finished matches
Burnley LDLDL
L @ Norwich 1–4 Aug 29
D vs Middlesbrough 1–1 Sep 2
L vs Bristol City 1–2 Sep 5
D @ Wrexham 1–1 Sep 8
L @ Swansea 1–3 Sep 12
Derby LWLLL
L vs Swansea 0–3 Aug 29
W @ Portsmouth 2–0 Sep 1
L @ West Ham 0–3 Sep 5
L vs West Brom 0–1 Sep 9
L vs Birmingham 1–2 Sep 12
Goals trend · last 5 matches
Burnley
Scored 1.0 avg
1 1 1 1 1
Conceded 2.2 avg
4 1 2 1 3
Derby
Scored 0.6 avg
0 2 0 0 1
Conceded 1.8 avg
3 0 3 1 2
Head-to-head · last meetings
6 Burnley FC
4 Draws
0 Derby
Aug 2025 Burnley 2–1 Derby Burnley
Apr 2025 Derby 0–0 Burnley Draw
Dec 2024 Burnley 0–0 Derby Draw
Jan 2016 Burnley 4–1 Derby Burnley
Sep 2015 Derby 0–0 Burnley Draw

Over 2.5 goals in 4 of the last 10 meetings.