Expert analysis

Atlanta United Set to Score at Home

Atlanta United score 1.5 goals a game at home this season. FC Cincinnati concede 2.9 goals a game away from home. The visitors have allowed 3.4 goals per game across their last five matches and sit without a win in that stretch. Head-to-head games have produced over 2.5 goals in seven of the last ten meetings. Atlanta have failed to score in nine of their 27 league fixtures yet post a higher average on their own pitch. Cincinnati have kept just two clean sheets in 26 games and rank 10th after three defeats in five. How Atlanta press against a defense leaking goals on the road will decide whether they reach two.

Analysis by AcePredictor 68.1% win rate

Result

1–3 MISSED

Our pick “Atlanta United Over 1.5 Goals” at odds 1.80 didn’t land — final score 1–3.

Match timeline

First half
Teenage Hadebe 2'
Tomás Jacob 43'
Second half
Kevin Denkey assist Tom Barlow 52'
Aleksey Miranchuk ↓ Ajani Fortune 56'
Ender Jesús Echenique Peña ↓ David Douděra 60'
Miguel Almirón assist Breel Embolo 69'
Julian Malatini ↓ Miles Robinson 72'
Bryan Ramirez ↓ Tyrell Malacia 72'
Gerardo Valenzuela ↓ Samuel Mawuena Gidi 78'
Tah Anunga ↓ Obinna Nwobodo 78'
Tom Barlow assist Kyle Smith 84'
Fafà Picault ↓ Giuliano Galoppo 86'
Cooper Sanchez ↓ Tristan Muyumba 86'
Julian Malatini 88'
Sergi Santos ↓ Elías Báez 90+2'
Mauricio Amaro 90+4'
Tom Barlow 90+4'
Kevin Denkey assist Ender Jesús Echenique Peña 90+7'

This season

	Atlanta United FC	FC Cincinnati
Over 2.5 goals	59%	73%
Clean sheet	11%	8%
Failed to score	33%	15%
Scored per game	1.2	2.1
Conceded per game	1.7	2.5
Scored home / away	1.5 / 0.9	2.8 / 1.5

Across 27 and 26 matches played this season.

League table position

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Pts
9	NEW New York City FC	27	8	9	10	33
10	FCC FC Cincinnati ▲	26	8	9	9	33
11	DCU DC United	26	6	12	8	30
12	COL Columbus Crew	27	8	5	14	29
13	TOR Toronto FC	27	6	11	10	29
14	ATL Atlanta United FC ▲	27	7	6	14	27
15	CFM CF Montreal	27	6	6	15	24

Recent form · last 5 finished matches

Atlanta United FC DLDWD

D @ Inter Miami 2–2 Sep 5

L vs Orlando City SC 2–3 Sep 9

D @ DC United 0–0 Sep 12

W @ Portland Timbers 1–0 Sep 20

D vs New York City FC 2–2 Sep 26

FC Cincinnati LLDDL

L @ Nashville SC 0–4 Aug 30

L @ Philadelphia Union 0–5 Sep 9

D vs Charlotte 3–3 Sep 12

D @ Houston Dynamo 2–2 Sep 20

L @ CF Montreal 1–3 Sep 26

Goals trend · last 5 matches

Atlanta United FC

Scored 1.4 avg

2 2 0 1 2

Conceded 1.4 avg

2 3 0 0 2

FC Cincinnati

Scored 1.2 avg

0 0 3 2 1

Conceded 3.4 avg

4 5 3 2 3

Head-to-head · last meetings

1 Atlanta United FC

5 Draws

4 FC Cincinnati

Feb 2026 FC Cincinnati 2–0 Atlanta United FC FC Cincinnati

May 2025 Atlanta United FC 4–2 FC Cincinnati Atlanta United FC

Mar 2025 FC Cincinnati 2–2 Atlanta United FC Draw

Feb 2025 Atlanta United FC 2–2 FC Cincinnati Draw

May 2024 FC Cincinnati 1–0 Atlanta United FC FC Cincinnati

Over 2.5 goals in 7 of the last 10 meetings.

Confirmed lineups

Atlanta United FC 4-3-1-2

1 L. Hoyos G
55 T. Jacob D
6 J. Alonso D
4 E. Mihaj D
3 E. Báez D
11 G. Galoppo M
14 M. Amaro M
8 T. Muyumba M
35 A. Fortune M
36 B. Embolo F
10 M. Almirón F

Bench L. Brennan, C. Sanchez, P. Díaz, A. Miranchuk, F. Picault, Adrian Gill, Jayden Hibbert, Sergio Santos, Matthew Edwards

G. Martino

FC Cincinnati 3-5-2

13 E. Louro G
24 K. Smith D
12 M. Robinson D
15 T. Hadebe D
23 D. Douděra M
20 P. Bucha M
11 S. Gidi M
5 O. Nwobodo M
3 T. Malacia M
9 K. Denkey F
16 T. Barlow F

Bench Bryan Josías Ramírez León, G. Valenzuela, A. Powell, K. Mboma Dem, J. Malatini, N. Hagglund, B. Anunga, R. Celentano, E. Echenique

Pat Noonan

Team news · injuries & suspensions

Atlanta United FC

OUT D. Chica Knee Injury
OUT W. Reilly Ankle Injury
OUT D. Chica Knee Injury
OUT W. Reilly Ankle Injury

FC Cincinnati

OUT Evander Leg Injury
OUT Evander Leg Injury