Championship (England) MISSED 4–1
Wed, Oct 14 · 20:45 · Loftus Road
QPR Home
VS
Derby Away
QPR vs Derby — Championship
Tipster's pick Under 3.5 Goals
Confidence Low
Odds 1.36 Odds via Bet365
Expert analysis

QPR Host Derby in Likely Low Scoring Contest

QPR sit in sixth position after a sequence of four draws and one defeat in their last five games. Derby remain in 23rd after three losses and two draws over the same period. Both teams have low scoring records, with QPR averaging 1.2 goals per game and Derby 0.9 across their nine matches each. QPR have seen three or more total goals in four of nine league games, while Derby have the same in five. Head to head results show over 2.5 goals in only four of the last ten meetings between the two. This suggests a controlled game where chances stay limited. The main risk to a low scoring outcome comes if Derby exploit spaces on the counter at Loftus Road.

AcePredictor Analysis by AcePredictor 68% win rate
Result
4–1 MISSED

Our pick “Under 3.5 Goals” at odds 1.36 didn’t land — final score 4–1.

Match timeline
  1. First half
  2. Ryan Nyambe ↓ Sondre Langas 12'
  3. Alfie Lloyd assist Boy Kemper 18'
  4. Nicolas Madsen Penalty 22'
  5. D. Ozoh 24'
  6. John Eustace 28'
  7. Sammie Szmodics 44'
  8. Harvey Vale 45'
  9. Lewis Travis ↓ D. Ozoh 45'
  10. Henrik Wendel Meister ↓ Mohammed Fuseini 45'
  11. Second half
  12. Henrik Wendel Meister 56'
  13. Harvey Vale 57'
  14. Glen Kamara 60'
  15. Richard Kone ↓ Rayan Jawad Kolli 62'
  16. Jonathan Varane ↓ Alfie Lloyd 62'
  17. Kwame Poku ↓ Harvey Vale 62'
  18. Lars-Jørgen Salvesen ↓ Carlton Morris 63'
  19. Paul Smyth assist Nicolas Madsen 68'
  20. Filip Bilbija ↓ Sammie Szmodics 70'
  21. Amadou Salif Mbengue ↓ Boy Kemper 72'
  22. Leon Scarlett ↓ Paul Smyth 77'
  23. Lars-Jørgen Salvesen 90+10'
This season
QPR Derby
Over 2.5 goals 44% 56%
Clean sheet 22% 11%
Failed to score 33% 33%
Scored per game 1.2 0.9
Conceded per game 0.9 1.7
Scored home / away 1.0 / 1.4 0.8 / 1.0

Across 9 and 9 matches played this season.

League table position
# Team PWDLPts
5 WOL Wolves 8 4 2 2 14
6 QPR QPR ▲ 9 3 5 1 14
7 BIR Birmingham 9 3 5 1 14
8 MIL Millwall 9 4 2 3 14
9 WES West Brom 9 4 2 3 14
10 BRI Bristol City 9 4 2 3 14
11 CHA Charlton 9 3 4 2 13
12 BLA Blackburn 9 3 3 3 12
13 SHE Sheffield Utd 9 3 3 3 12
14 WRE Wrexham 9 2 5 2 11
15 LIN Lincoln 9 3 2 4 11
16 SOU Southampton 8 4 2 2 10
17 BOL Bolton 9 3 1 5 10
18 NOR Norwich 9 3 0 6 9
19 POR Portsmouth 7 2 2 3 8
20 WAT Watford 9 2 2 5 8
21 CAR Cardiff 9 1 4 4 7
22 BUR Burnley 9 1 4 4 7
23 DER Derby ▲ 9 1 3 5 6
24 PRE Preston 9 1 1 7 4
Recent form · last 5 finished matches
QPR LDDDD
L vs Middlesbrough 0–1 Sep 5
D @ Charlton 0–0 Sep 9
D @ West Brom 1–1 Sep 12
D vs Preston 2–2 Sep 19
D @ West Ham 1–1 Oct 9
Derby LLLDD
L @ West Ham 0–3 Sep 5
L vs West Brom 0–1 Sep 9
L vs Birmingham 1–2 Sep 12
D @ Burnley 1–1 Sep 19
D vs Wrexham 1–1 Oct 10
Goals trend · last 5 matches
QPR
Scored 0.8 avg
0 0 1 2 1
Conceded 1.0 avg
1 0 1 2 1
Derby
Scored 0.6 avg
0 0 1 1 1
Conceded 1.6 avg
3 1 2 1 1
Head-to-head · last meetings
5 QPR
1 Draws
4 Derby
Apr 2026 QPR 2–3 Derby Derby
Oct 2025 Derby 1–0 QPR Derby
Feb 2025 QPR 4–0 Derby QPR
Oct 2024 Derby 2–0 QPR Derby
Apr 2022 QPR 1–0 Derby QPR

Over 2.5 goals in 4 of the last 10 meetings.

Confirmed lineups
QPR 4-3-3
  • 1 P. Charles G
  • 2 K. Adamson D
  • 3 J. Dunne D
  • 5 R. Edwards D
  • 12 B. Kemper D
  • 24 N. Madsen M
  • 20 H. Vale M
  • 18 G. Kamara M
  • 15 A. Lloyd F
  • 26 Rayan Jawad Kolli F
  • 11 P. Smyth F
Bench I. Alemayehu, J. Clarke-Salter, R. Kone, A. Mbengue, L. Morrison, K. Poku, J. Varane, C. Ward, Leon Scarlett

Julien Stéphan

Derby 4-2-3-1
  • 31 J. Vickers G
  • 23 J. Ward D
  • 6 S. Langås D
  • 28 D. Sanderson D
  • 26 R. Hedges D
  • 20 A. Mowatt M
  • 4 D. Ozoh M
  • 16 M. Fuseini M
  • 8 B. Clark M
  • 11 S. Szmodics M
  • 9 C. Morris F
Bench R. Brewster, O. Fraulo, H. Meister, R. Nyambe, R. O'Donnell, L. Salvesen, L. Travis, C. Blackett-Taylor, F. Bilbija

J. Eustace

Team news · injuries & suspensions
QPR
  • OUT I. Chair Muscle Injury
  • OUT K. Dembele Knee Injury
  • DOUBT R. Burrell Inactive
  • OUT I. Chair Muscle Injury
  • OUT K. Dembele Knee Injury
  • DOUBT R. Burrell Inactive
Derby
  • OUT P. Agyemang Achilles Tendon Injury
  • OUT M. Clarke Calf Injury
  • OUT C. Forsyth Knee Injury
  • OUT D. Murkin Hamstring Injury
  • OUT C. Taylor Injury
  • OUT J. Widell Zetterstrom Knee Injury
  • OUT P. Agyemang Achilles Tendon Injury
  • OUT M. Clarke Calf Injury
  • OUT C. Forsyth Knee Injury
  • OUT D. Murkin Hamstring Injury
  • OUT C. Taylor Injury
  • OUT J. Widell Zetterstrom Knee Injury