Serie A (Brazil) WON 3–0
Sun, Aug 16 · 21:00 · MRV Arena
Atletico-MG Home
VS
Gremio Away
Atletico-MG vs Gremio — Serie A
Tipster's pick Under 3.5 Goals
Value Fair · 2/5
Odds 1.30 Odds via Bet365
Our estimate74%
This price needs77%
Expert analysis

Atletico-MG and Gremio Look Set for Few Goals

Atletico-MG average just 1.3 goals per game this season while Gremio manage only 1.1 overall and drop to 0.6 on the road. Both sides post low rates of matches exceeding 2.5 goals, with Atletico at 19 percent and Gremio at 10 percent, pointing to controlled games that rarely explode. Gremio’s recent form includes several low-output draws and narrow wins that limit total scoring. Several attacking options sit out for each team, including Scarpa and Tete, which further reduces the chance of a high-scoring affair. Historical meetings have produced plenty of three-goal games but few that reach four or more. Current squad depth and league position trends suggest neither side will push for an open contest here.

AcePredictor Analysis by AcePredictor 73% win rate
Result
3–0 WON

Our pick “Under 3.5 Goals” at odds 1.30 won — final score 3–0.

League table position
# Team PWDLPts
10 BOT Botafogo 21 8 6 7 30
11 ATL Atletico-MG 21 8 5 8 29
12 SAO Sao Paulo 22 7 6 9 27
13 VIT Vitoria 22 7 5 10 26
14 GRE Gremio 21 6 7 8 25
15 MIR Mirassol 21 6 5 10 23
Recent form · last 5 finished matches
Atletico-MG DWDW
D vs Juventude 0–0 Aug 1
W @ Juventude 1–0 Aug 4
D @ Remo 2–2 Aug 8
W @ RB Bragantino 1–0 Aug 12
Gremio LDWW
L vs Bolívar 0–1 Jul 30
D @ Mirassol 1–1 Aug 2
W vs Mirassol 1–0 Aug 5
W vs Sao Paulo 2–1 Aug 8
Goals trend · last 5 matches
Atletico-MG
Scored 1.0 avg
0 1 2 1
Conceded 0.5 avg
0 0 2 0
Gremio
Scored 1.0 avg
0 1 1 2
Conceded 0.8 avg
1 1 0 1
Head-to-head · last meetings
4 Atletico-MG
1 Draws
5 Gremio
Feb 2026 Gremio 2–1 Atletico-MG Gremio
Aug 2025 Atletico-MG 1–3 Gremio Gremio
Mar 2025 Gremio 2–1 Atletico-MG Gremio
Oct 2024 Atletico-MG 2–1 Gremio Atletico-MG
Sep 2024 Gremio 2–3 Atletico-MG Atletico-MG

Over 2.5 goals in 8 of the last 10 meetings.

Confirmed lineups
Atletico-MG 4-2-3-1
  • 22 Everson G
  • 23 Ángelo Preciado D
  • 4 Ruan D
  • 14 Vitor Hugo D
  • 6 Renan Lodi D
  • 21 Alan Franco M
  • 39 Mamady Cissé M
  • 28 Tomás Cuello M
  • 30 Victor Hugo M
  • 17 Igor Gomes M
  • 9 Mateo Cassierra F
Bench Gabriel Delfim, Natanael, Vitor Fernandes Chaves Teixeira, Kauã Pascini, Maycon, Bernard, Reinier, Kevin Castaño, Tomás Pérez, Alan Minda, Thiago Borbas, Dudu

Eduardo Dominguez

Gremio 4-1-4-1
  • 1 Weverton G
  • 27 Diego Caito D
  • 6 Gustavo Martins D
  • 82 Wallace D
  • 54 Pedro Gabriel D
  • 8 Erick Noriega M
  • 7 Cristian Pavón M
  • 5 Juan Nardoni M
  • 17 Dodi M
  • 9 Francis Amuzu M
  • 95 Carlos Vinícius F
Bench Gabriel Grando, Wagner Leonardo, Marcos Rocha, Caio Paulista, Walter Kannemann, Filip Krovinović, Zortéa, Gabriel Mec, Jovane Cabral, José Enamorado, Tetê, Martin Braithwaite

Luis Castro

Team news · injuries & suspensions
Atletico-MG
  • OUT L. Duarte Hamstring Injury
  • OUT Gustavo Scarpa Muscle Injury
  • OUT Indio Knee Injury
  • OUT Lyanco Injury
  • OUT Patrick Silva Knee Injury
  • OUT L. Duarte Hamstring Injury
  • OUT Gustavo Scarpa Muscle Injury
  • OUT Indio Knee Injury
  • OUT Lyanco Injury
  • OUT Patrick Silva Knee Injury
Gremio
  • OUT Fabian Balbuena Coach's decision
  • OUT Joao Pedro Transfer negotiations
  • OUT Marlon Rest
  • OUT M. Monsalve Coach's decision
  • OUT M. Villasanti Rest
  • OUT Fabian Balbuena Coach's decision
  • OUT Joao Pedro Transfer negotiations
  • OUT Marlon Rest
  • OUT M. Monsalve Coach's decision
  • OUT M. Villasanti Rest