Serie A (Brazil) WON 2–1
Sat, Aug 8 · 21:00
Gremio Home
VS
Sao Paulo Away
Gremio vs Sao Paulo — Serie A
Tipster's pick Under 3.5 Goals
Value Fair · 2/5
Odds 1.25 Odds via Bet365
Our estimate76%
This price needs80%
Expert analysis

Gremio Sao Paulo Likely to Stay Under Goal Line

Gremio and Sao Paulo both average under two goals per game across their recent outings, which keeps matches tight from the start. Their season-long records show very few contests crossing the two-and-a-half goal mark, reflecting cautious approaches in midfield. Sao Paulo’s absences of Lucas Moura and other attackers reduce their threat on the break and limit open play. Gremio’s own missing forwards add to a pattern where both teams struggle to create clear chances. Past meetings between the sides have varied, yet the current squad shapes and low-scoring tendencies point toward fewer big swings in this fixture.

AcePredictor Analysis by AcePredictor 73% win rate
Result
2–1 WON

Our pick “Under 3.5 Goals” at odds 1.25 won — final score 2–1.

League table position
# Team PWDLPts
11 COR Coritiba 21 7 6 8 27
12 SAO Sao Paulo 20 7 5 8 26
13 VIT Vitoria 21 7 5 9 26
14 MIR Mirassol 20 6 5 9 23
15 SAN Santos 20 5 7 8 22
16 INT Internacional 21 5 7 9 22
17 GRE Gremio 20 5 7 8 22
18 VAS Vasco DA Gama 20 5 6 9 21
Recent form · last 5 finished matches
Gremio DLDW
D vs Fluminense 1–1 Jul 26
L vs Bolívar 0–1 Jul 30
D @ Mirassol 1–1 Aug 2
W vs Mirassol 1–0 Aug 5
Sao Paulo WLLD
W vs Boston River 2–0 May 26
L @ Remo 0–1 May 31
L vs Atletico Paranaense 1–2 Jul 23
D @ Flamengo 1–1 Jul 26
Goals trend · last 5 matches
Gremio
Scored 0.8 avg
1 0 1 1
Conceded 0.8 avg
1 1 1 0
Sao Paulo
Scored 1.0 avg
2 0 1 1
Conceded 1.0 avg
0 1 2 1
Head-to-head · last meetings
4 Gremio
0 Draws
6 Sao Paulo
Feb 2026 Sao Paulo 2–0 Gremio Sao Paulo
Oct 2025 Gremio 2–0 Sao Paulo Gremio
May 2025 Sao Paulo 2–1 Gremio Sao Paulo
Dec 2024 Gremio 2–1 Sao Paulo Gremio
Jul 2024 Sao Paulo 1–0 Gremio Sao Paulo

Over 2.5 goals in 7 of the last 10 meetings.

Confirmed lineups
Gremio 4-2-3-1
  • 1 Weverton G
  • 27 Diego Caito D
  • 6 Gustavo Martins D
  • 82 Wallace D
  • 23 Marlon D
  • 5 Juan Nardoni M
  • 19 Erick Noriega M
  • 7 Cristian Pavón M
  • 20 Mathias Villasanti M
  • 77 Jovane Cabral M
  • 95 Carlos Vinícius F
Bench Gabriel Grando, Marcos Rocha, Wagner Leonardo, Caio Paulista, Walter Kannemann, Francis Amuzu, Gabriel Mec, Leonel Pérez, Dodi, José Enamorado, Matheus Nascimento, Martin Braithwaite

Luis Castro

Sao Paulo 4-2-3-1
  • 23 Rafael G
  • 19 Lucas Ramon D
  • 5 Robert Arboleda D
  • 54 Luis Osorio D
  • 18 Wendell D
  • 29 Pablo Maia M
  • 94 Danielzinho M
  • 8 Marcos Antônio M
  • 10 Luciano M
  • 11 Ferreirinha M
  • 9 Jonathan Calleri F
Bench Carlos Coronel, Aurélio Buta, Sabino, Iago Borduchi, Domingos Duarte, Damián Bobadilla, Tetê, Victor Sá, Cauly, Newton, André Silva, Gustavo Santana

Junior Dorival

Team news · injuries & suspensions
Gremio
  • OUT Tete Inactive
  • OUT Willian Inactive
  • OUT Tete Inactive
  • OUT Willian Inactive
Sao Paulo
  • OUT D. Bobadilla Knee Injury
  • OUT E. Diaz Personal Reasons
  • OUT Lucas Moura Achilles Tendon Injury
  • DOUBT R. Toloi Muscle Injury
  • OUT D. Bobadilla Knee Injury
  • OUT E. Diaz Personal Reasons
  • OUT Lucas Moura Achilles Tendon Injury
  • DOUBT R. Toloi Muscle Injury