La Liga WON 4–1
Sat, Sep 12 · 21:00
Real Madrid Home
VS
Rayo Vallecano Away
Real Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano — La Liga
Tipster's pick Over 3.5 Goals
Value Strong · 4/5
Odds 1.80 Odds via Bet365
Our estimate59%
This price needs56%
Expert analysis

Madrid Attack Faces Leaky Rayo Away Defense

Real Madrid enter this fixture with strong recent results that highlight their ability to create chances at home. Rayo Vallecano have allowed plenty of goals in away matches this season. Past meetings between the sides have often produced open games with multiple scoring opportunities. Injuries to several defenders for both teams should reduce defensive structure and increase space on the pitch. Rayo’s mixed form lately shows they have trouble containing stronger attacks on the road. Madrid’s pattern of high goal tallies at their stadium aligns with the conditions for a high-scoring contest here.

AcePredictor Analysis by AcePredictor 73.2% win rate
Result
4–1 WON

Our pick “Over 3.5 Goals” at odds 1.80 won — final score 4–1.

Match timeline
  1. First half
  2. Kylian Mbappé Penalty 14'
  3. Álvaro Fernández Carreras assist Kylian Mbappé 17'
  4. Jude Bellingham assist Vinícius 35'
  5. Eduardo Camavinga ↓ Federico Valverde 45'
  6. Second half
  7. Sergio Camello 51'
  8. Rayane Belaid ↓ Pedro Díaz 67'
  9. Óscar Valentín ↓ Gnangoro Bouare 67'
  10. Aurelien Tchouameni ↓ Bernardo Silva 69'
  11. Arda Güler ↓ Yan Diomande 72'
  12. Alexandre Zurawski ↓ Sergio Camello 75'
  13. Mujaid Sadick ↓ Unai López 75'
  14. Pathé Ciss 76'
  15. Ivan Balliu ↓ Adrià Pedrosa 86'
  16. Marc Cucurella ↓ Vinícius 89'
  17. Kylian Mbappé assist Arda Güler 90+1'
This season
Real Madrid Rayo Vallecano
Over 2.5 goals 50% 25%
Clean sheet 25% 0%
Failed to score 25% 0%
Scored per game 2.5 1.8
Conceded per game 0.8 2.5
Scored home / away 4.0 / 1.0 2.0 / 1.5

Across 4 and 4 matches played this season.

League table position
# Team PWDLPts
2 ALA Alaves 4 3 1 0 10
3 REA Real Madrid ▲ 4 3 0 1 9
4 REA Real Betis 4 3 0 1 9
5 DEP Deportivo La Coruna 4 2 2 0 8
6 SEV Sevilla 4 2 1 1 7
7 ATL Atletico Madrid 4 2 1 1 7
8 OSA Osasuna 4 2 1 1 7
9 REA Real Sociedad 5 2 1 2 7
10 ATH Athletic Club 4 2 0 2 6
11 LEV Levante 4 1 2 1 5
12 ESP Espanyol 4 1 1 2 4
13 RAC Racing Santander 4 1 1 2 4
14 RAY Rayo Vallecano ▲ 4 1 1 2 4
15 GET Getafe 4 1 1 2 4
Recent form · last 5 finished matches
Real Madrid WWWLW
W @ Espanyol 2–1 Aug 22
W vs Real Sociedad 4–1 Aug 26
W vs Malaga 4–0 Aug 30
L @ Real Betis 0–1 Sep 4
W vs Inter 2–1 Sep 8
Rayo Vallecano LLDLW
L @ Ipswich 0–3 Aug 8
L @ Sevilla 1–2 Aug 15
D vs Alaves 1–1 Aug 20
L @ Barcelona 2–5 Aug 31
W vs Racing Santander 3–2 Sep 5
Goals trend · last 5 matches
Real Madrid
Scored 2.4 avg
2 4 4 0 2
Conceded 0.8 avg
1 1 0 1 1
Rayo Vallecano
Scored 1.4 avg
0 1 1 2 3
Conceded 2.6 avg
3 2 1 5 2
Head-to-head · last meetings
5 Real Madrid
4 Draws
1 Rayo Vallecano
Feb 2026 Real Madrid 2–1 Rayo Vallecano Real Madrid
Nov 2025 Rayo Vallecano 0–0 Real Madrid Draw
Mar 2025 Real Madrid 2–1 Rayo Vallecano Real Madrid
Dec 2024 Rayo Vallecano 3–3 Real Madrid Draw
Feb 2024 Rayo Vallecano 1–1 Real Madrid Draw

Over 2.5 goals in 6 of the last 10 meetings.

Confirmed lineups
Real Madrid 4-2-3-1
  • 1 T. Courtois G
  • 24 D. Dumfries D
  • 22 A. Rüdiger D
  • 16 I. Konaté D
  • 18 Álvaro Fernández D
  • 8 F. Valverde M
  • 20 Bernardo Silva M
  • 25 Y. Diomande M
  • 5 J. Bellingham M
  • 7 Vinícius Júnior M
  • 10 Kylian Mbappé F
Bench Raúl Asencio, T. Alexander-Arnold, E. Camavinga, Marc Cucurella, Brahim Díaz, Endrick, Carlos Espí, A. Güler, D. Huijsen, A. Lunin, Thiago Pitarch, A. Tchouaméni

José Mourinho

Rayo Vallecano 4-2-3-1
  • 25 E. Audero G
  • 2 A. Rațiu D
  • 24 F. Lejeune D
  • 6 P. Ciss D
  • 17 Adrià Pedrosa D
  • 8 Unai López M
  • 36 G. Bouare M
  • 14 G. Tsitaishvili M
  • 4 Pedro Díaz M
  • 18 Álvaro García M
  • 10 Sergio Camello F
Bench I. Balliu, Óscar Valentín, Mujaid Sadick, Adrián Molina, M. Kumbulla, Pelayo Fernández, Marco de las Sías, Dani Cárdenas, Rayane Belid, Samu Becerra, Alemão, M. Roman

Beñat San José

Team news · injuries & suspensions
Real Madrid
  • OUT Eder Militao Hamstring Injury
  • OUT F. Mendy Hip Injury
  • OUT Rodrygo Knee Injury
  • OUT Eder Militao Hamstring Injury
  • OUT F. Mendy Hip Injury
  • OUT Rodrygo Knee Injury
Rayo Vallecano
  • OUT A. Batalla Broken calfbone
  • OUT Luiz Felipe Hamstring Injury
  • OUT R. Nteka Muscle Injury
  • OUT I. Palazon Muscle Injury
  • OUT F. Perez Red Card
  • OUT J. Vertrouwd Muscle Injury
  • OUT J. de Frutos Red Card
  • DOUBT I. Balliu Ankle Injury
  • DOUBT M. Kumbulla Muscle Injury
  • OUT A. Batalla Broken calfbone
  • OUT Luiz Felipe Hamstring Injury
  • OUT R. Nteka Muscle Injury
  • OUT I. Palazon Muscle Injury
  • OUT F. Perez Red Card
  • OUT J. Vertrouwd Muscle Injury
  • OUT J. de Frutos Red Card
  • DOUBT I. Balliu Ankle Injury
  • DOUBT M. Kumbulla Muscle Injury