Expert analysis

St. Louis City and Toronto Set for Low-Scoring Encounter

St. Louis City average 2.10 goals at home this season but their overall matches rarely exceed three total goals given the low over-2.5 rate. Toronto FC struggle to create away from home and have posted just 0.80 goals per away game while keeping clean sheets at a similar low rate to their hosts. The single previous meeting between these sides stayed under three goals and Toronto’s current injury list removes several creative midfield options that could open games up. Both teams show modest goal tallies across the campaign with St. Louis conceding 1.40 on average and Toronto 1.80 so neither side tends to run up big numbers. Recent form for Toronto features several low-output draws and narrow results that align with fewer goals overall. St. Louis injuries to key attackers further limit their ability to push high-scoring games against a compact visitor defense.

Analysis by AcePredictor 68% win rate

Result

3–1 MISSED

Our pick “Under 3.5 Goals” at odds 1.67 didn’t land — final score 3–1.

Match timeline

First half
W. Zimmerman 23'
C. Wallem 28'
C. Holse assist A. Matan 41'
Second half
S. Becher ↓ S. Jeong 46'
T. Totland assist A. Matan 54'
N. Gomis ↓ W. Zimmerman 57'
T. Corbeanu ↓ M. Cimermancic 63'
J. Osorio ↓ N. Dorsch 63'
Z. Monlouis ↓ D. Etienne 63'
S. Becher assist C. Wallem 68'
F. Fall 73'
A. Coello 74'
L. Morgan ↓ J. Sargent 75'
D. Polvara ↓ C. Wallem 78'
D. Edelman ↓ A. Matan 79'
D. Downs ↓ Rafael Navarro 85'
T. Ostrak ↓ C. Holse 90+2'
90+7'

This season

	St. Louis City	Toronto FC
Over 2.5 goals	52%	68%
Clean sheet	12%	12%
Failed to score	16%	16%
Scored per game	1.7	1.5
Conceded per game	1.4	1.8
Scored home / away	2.1 / 1.3	2.1 / 0.8

Across 25 and 25 matches played this season.

League table position

#	Team	P	W	D	L	Pts
4	SAN San Jose Earthquakes	25	12	5	8	41
5	STL St. Louis City ▲	25	11	8	6	41
6	LOS Los Angeles FC	26	11	7	8	40

Recent form · last 5 finished matches

St. Louis City DWDWW

D vs FC Dallas 3–3 Aug 30

W @ Vancouver Whitecaps 3–1 Sep 6

D @ Portland Timbers 2–2 Sep 10

W vs Minnesota United FC 4–2 Sep 13

W @ Colorado Rapids 3–0 Sep 17

Toronto FC WDDWL

W @ Inter Miami 2–1 Aug 22

D vs New York City FC 1–1 Aug 29

D vs Chicago Fire 4–4 Sep 5

W vs Nashville SC 2–1 Sep 9

L @ Orlando City SC 0–3 Sep 12

Goals trend · last 5 matches

St. Louis City

Scored 3.0 avg

3 3 2 4 3

Conceded 1.6 avg

3 1 2 2 0

Toronto FC

Scored 1.8 avg

2 1 4 2 0

Conceded 2.0 avg

1 1 4 1 3

Head-to-head · last meetings

1 St. Louis City

0 Draws

0 Toronto FC

Jul 2023 Toronto FC 0–1 St. Louis City St. Louis City

Over 2.5 goals in 0 of the last 1 meetings.

Confirmed lineups

St. Louis City 3-4-3

1 Roman Bürki G
99 Jaziel Orozco D
32 Timo Baumgartl D
27 Fallou Fall D
6 Conrad Wallem M
8 Christopher Durkin M
23 Alexandru Mățan M
14 Tomas Totland M
77 Jeong Sang-bin F
9 Rafael Navarro F
19 Carlo Holse F

Bench Benjamin Lundt, Lukas MacNaughton, Daniel Edelman, Dante Polvara, Mykhi Joyner, Tomáš Ostrák, Rafael Santos, Simon Becher, Damion Downs

Yoann Damet

Toronto FC 5-3-2

1 Luka Gavran G
11 Derrick Etienne D
22 Richie Laryea D
25 Walker Zimmerman D
13 Benjamin Kuscevic D
3 Matheus Pereira D
14 Alonso Coello M
6 Niklas Dorsch M
71 Markus Cimermancic M
9 Josh Sargent F
20 Dániel Sallói F

Bench William Yarbrough, Jackson Gilman, Nickseon Gomis, Kobe Franklin, Zane Monlouis, Jonathan Osorio, Theo Corbeanu, Emilio Aristizábal, Lewis Morgan

Robin Fraser

Team news · injuries & suspensions

St. Louis City

OUT Celio Pompeu Knee Injury
OUT K. Hiebert Hip Injury
DOUBT P. Ault Ankle Injury
OUT Celio Pompeu Knee Injury
OUT K. Hiebert Hip Injury
DOUBT P. Ault Ankle Injury

Toronto FC

OUT D. Mihailovic Muscle Injury
OUT N. Palacio Lower-Body Injury
DOUBT J. Osorio Knee Injury
DOUBT L. Stefanovic Foot Injury
OUT D. Mihailovic Muscle Injury
OUT N. Palacio Lower-Body Injury
DOUBT J. Osorio Knee Injury
DOUBT L. Stefanovic Foot Injury