Championship (England) MISSED 1–2
Sat, Sep 12 · 16:00 · Vicarage Road
Watford Home
VS
Stoke City Away
Watford vs Stoke City — Championship
Tipster's pick Watford or Draw
Value Good · 3/5
Odds 1.40 Odds via Bet365
Our estimate74%
This price needs71%
Expert analysis

Watford Home Edge Points to Double Chance Value

Watford enter this fixture with a recent sequence of WDDLLW that mixes resilience at the back with occasional attacking threat. Stoke City arrive on the back of LLLWWD and have struggled to convert chances away from home where they average just one goal per game. Historical meetings show Watford claiming five wins and two draws in the last ten encounters, giving them the clearer upper hand in this matchup. Watford’s home scoring rate of 1.70 goals per game stands in contrast to their overall average, while Stoke’s away defence has conceded 1.70 on average this season. Several key absences on both sides, including Watford’s Baah and Stoke’s Cresswell, may limit attacking options and keep the game tighter than usual. These factors together suggest the home side is unlikely to lose outright.

AcePredictor Analysis by AcePredictor 73.2% win rate
Result
1–2 MISSED

Our pick “Watford or Draw” at odds 1.40 didn’t land — final score 1–2.

Match timeline
  1. First half
  2. Iker Bravo 19'
  3. El Hadji Soumare 33'
  4. Haktab Omar Traore ↓ Jordan Zemura 42'
  5. Jack Mcglynn 45+4'
  6. Second half
  7. Eric Junior Bocat assist Lamine Cissé 57'
  8. Rocco Vata ↓ Stephy Mavididi 58'
  9. Amin Nabizada ↓ Othmane Maamma 58'
  10. George Hirst ↓ Lamine Cissé 65'
  11. Luca Kjerrumgaard ↓ Iker Bravo 69'
  12. Luca Bombino ↓ Eric Junior Bocat 80'
  13. George Hirst 82'
  14. Ben Pearson ↓ Jack Mcglynn 90'
  15. Amin Nabizada assist Edo Kayembe 90+1'
  16. Amin Nabizada 90+3'
This season
Watford Stoke City
Over 2.5 goals 0% 17%
Clean sheet 0% 33%
Failed to score 33% 0%
Scored per game 1.0 1.5
Conceded per game 1.2 1.7
Scored home / away 1.7 / 0.3 2.0 / 1.0

Across 6 and 6 matches played this season.

League table position
# Team PWDLPts
11 WOL Wolves 5 2 2 1 8
12 WAT Watford ▲ 6 2 2 2 8
13 SOU Southampton 6 3 2 1 7
14 WRE Wrexham 6 1 4 1 7
15 BIR Birmingham 6 1 4 1 7
16 STO Stoke City ▲ 6 2 1 3 7
17 POR Portsmouth 5 2 0 3 6
Recent form · last 5 finished matches
Watford LDLLW
L vs Peterborough 1–5 Aug 25
D vs West Ham 1–1 Aug 29
L @ Swansea 0–2 Sep 1
L @ West Brom 0–1 Sep 5
W vs Preston 2–1 Sep 8
Stoke City DLWWD
D vs Hull City 1–1 Aug 25
L @ Wolves 1–4 Aug 29
W vs Norwich 1–0 Sep 1
W vs Charlton 4–0 Sep 5
D @ Cardiff 1–1 Sep 8
Goals trend · last 5 matches
Watford
Scored 0.8 avg
1 1 0 0 2
Conceded 2.0 avg
5 1 2 1 1
Stoke City
Scored 1.6 avg
1 1 1 4 1
Conceded 1.2 avg
1 4 0 0 1
Head-to-head · last meetings
5 Watford
2 Draws
3 Stoke City
Mar 2026 Stoke City 3–1 Watford Stoke City
Dec 2025 Watford 1–0 Stoke City Watford
Mar 2025 Stoke City 0–0 Watford Draw
Aug 2024 Watford 3–0 Stoke City Watford
Dec 2023 Watford 1–1 Stoke City Draw

Over 2.5 goals in 5 of the last 10 meetings.

Confirmed lineups
Watford 4-2-3-1
  • 1 F. Ravaglia G
  • 4 K. Keben D
  • 6 M. Pollock D
  • 3 S. Coulibaly D
  • 33 J. Zemura D
  • 39 E. Kayembe M
  • 5 H. Kyprianou M
  • 7 O. Maamma M
  • 17 Iker Bravo M
  • 45 S. Mavididi M
  • 20 M. Doumbia F
Bench M. Antonio, D. Bachmann, L. Kjerrumgaard, Amin Nabizada, O. Traoré, R. Vata, S. Walker, Albert Eames

A. Dionisi

Stoke City 4-2-3-1
  • 1 V. Johansson G
  • 40 M. Talovierov D
  • 16 B. Wilmot D
  • 5 L. Graham D
  • 17 E. Bocat D
  • 27 El Hadji Djibril Soumaré M
  • 8 E. Galbraith M
  • 7 J. McGlynn M
  • 2 B. Johnson M
  • 13 J. Devenny M
  • 11 L. Cissé F
Bench B. Gibson, J. Griffiths, G. Hirst, M. Manhoef, B. Pearson, T. Rigo, R. Boženík, L. Bombino, F. Anderson

M. Robins

Team news · injuries & suspensions
Watford
  • OUT T. Akomeah Lacking Match Fitness
  • OUT K. Baah Knock
  • OUT M. Boadu Injury
  • OUT M. Bola Hamstring Injury
  • OUT E. Bove Knee Injury
  • DOUBT J. Grieves Lacking Match Fitness
  • DOUBT B. Mlacic Inactive
  • DOUBT J. Ngakia Thigh Injury
  • OUT T. Akomeah Lacking Match Fitness
  • OUT K. Baah Knock
  • OUT M. Boadu Injury
  • OUT M. Bola Hamstring Injury
  • OUT E. Bove Knee Injury
  • DOUBT J. Grieves Lacking Match Fitness
  • DOUBT B. Mlacic Inactive
  • DOUBT J. Ngakia Thigh Injury
Stoke City
  • OUT A. Cresswell Knee Injury
  • OUT B. Gibson Head Injury
  • OUT S. Ingelsson Injury
  • DOUBT S. Gallagher Injury
  • DOUBT B. Lawal Inactive
  • OUT A. Cresswell Knee Injury
  • OUT B. Gibson Head Injury
  • OUT S. Ingelsson Injury
  • DOUBT S. Gallagher Injury
  • DOUBT B. Lawal Inactive