Serie A (Brazil) WON 2–0
Sat, Sep 5 · 23:30 · Estadio Do MorumBIS
Sao Paulo Home
VS
Atletico-MG Away
Sao Paulo vs Atletico-MG — Serie A
Tipster's pick Under 3.5 Goals
Value Fair · 2/5
Odds 1.25 Odds via Bet365
Our estimate78%
This price needs80%
Expert analysis

Defensive Trends Point to Low Goal Output

Sao Paulo has posted a very low rate of matches going over two and a half goals this season. Atletico-MG shows similar restraint on the road with modest away scoring. Their head-to-head record features few high-scoring encounters across the last ten meetings. Both teams average just 2.4 goals combined per game recently. Key absences in attack for each side reduce the chance of open play. Form records for both clubs include several narrow results rather than blowouts. Coaches appear focused on compact shapes that limit space in midfield.

AcePredictor Analysis by AcePredictor 73.2% win rate
Result
2–0 WON

Our pick “Under 3.5 Goals” at odds 1.25 won — final score 2–0.

Match timeline
  1. First half
  2. Mateo Cassierra ↓ Reinier Jesus Carvalho 45'
  3. Frederico Rodrigues de Paula Santos ↓ Bernard Anício Caldeira Duarte 45'
  4. Vitor Hugo Franchescoli de Souza ↓ Kevin Castaño 45'
  5. Second half
  6. Pablo Maia ↓ Danielzinho 63'
  7. Jonathan Calleri ↓ Gustavo Santana 63'
  8. Iago Amaral Borduchi ↓ Wendell 64'
  9. Luciano assist Artur Victor Guimarães 67'
  10. Iago Amaral Borduchi assist Lucas Ramon 69'
  11. Alan Minda ↓ Alexsander Cristhian Gomes da Costa 70'
  12. Gustavo Scarpa ↓ Victor Hugo Gomes Silva 81'
  13. Djhordney Ferreira ↓ Artur Victor Guimarães 81'
  14. Aldemir Ferreira ↓ Luciano 85'
  15. Djhordney Ferreira 90+1'
  16. Tomás Cuello 90+4'
This season
Sao Paulo Atletico-MG
Over 2.5 goals 4% 21%
Clean sheet 17% 25%
Failed to score 21% 33%
Scored per game 1.2 1.3
Conceded per game 1.2 1.2
Scored home / away 1.6 / 0.8 1.7 / 1.0

Across 24 and 24 matches played this season.

League table position
# Team PWDLPts
7 COR Coritiba 25 10 7 8 37
8 ATL Atletico-MG ▲ 24 10 6 8 36
9 RBB RB Bragantino 24 10 5 9 35
10 COR Corinthians 25 8 8 9 32
11 SAO Sao Paulo ▲ 24 8 6 10 30
12 BOT Botafogo 24 8 6 10 30
Recent form · last 5 finished matches
Sao Paulo DDWLW
D @ Bolívar 1–1 Aug 12
D vs Coritiba 1–1 Aug 16
W vs Bolívar 3–1 Aug 19
L @ Chapecoense-sc 0–1 Aug 23
W vs RB Bragantino 2–1 Aug 29
Atletico-MG DDDWW
D vs RB Bragantino 2–2 Aug 19
D @ Internacional 0–0 Aug 22
D @ Cruzeiro 1–1 Aug 26
W vs Vitoria 2–1 Aug 29
W vs Cruzeiro 2–1 Sep 2
Goals trend · last 5 matches
Sao Paulo
Scored 1.4 avg
1 1 3 0 2
Conceded 1.0 avg
1 1 1 1 1
Atletico-MG
Scored 1.4 avg
2 0 1 2 2
Conceded 1.0 avg
2 0 1 1 1
Head-to-head · last meetings
1 Sao Paulo
4 Draws
5 Atletico-MG
Mar 2026 Atletico-MG 1–0 Sao Paulo Atletico-MG
Aug 2025 Sao Paulo 2–0 Atletico-MG Sao Paulo
Apr 2025 Atletico-MG 0–0 Sao Paulo Draw
Nov 2024 Sao Paulo 2–2 Atletico-MG Draw
Sep 2024 Atletico-MG 0–0 Sao Paulo Draw

Over 2.5 goals in 4 of the last 10 meetings.

Team news · injuries & suspensions
Sao Paulo
  • OUT D. Bobadilla Inactive
  • OUT Lucas Moura Achilles Tendon Injury
  • OUT Lucca Marques Jaw injury
  • OUT Victor Sa Inactive
  • OUT D. Bobadilla Inactive
  • OUT Lucas Moura Achilles Tendon Injury
  • OUT Lucca Marques Jaw injury
  • OUT Victor Sa Inactive
Atletico-MG
  • OUT L. Duarte Hamstring Injury
  • OUT Igor Gomes Knee Injury
  • OUT Indio Knee Injury
  • OUT Lyanco Foot Injury
  • OUT Patrick Silva Knee Injury
  • DOUBT Ruan Tressoldi Injury
  • OUT L. Duarte Hamstring Injury
  • OUT Igor Gomes Knee Injury
  • OUT Indio Knee Injury
  • OUT Lyanco Foot Injury
  • OUT Patrick Silva Knee Injury
  • DOUBT Ruan Tressoldi Injury