Serie A (Brazil) WON 3–1
Sat, Sep 12 · 21:00 · MRV Arena
Atletico-MG Home
VS
Fluminense FC Away
Atletico-MG vs Fluminense — Serie A
Tipster's pick Over 1.5 Goals
Value Fair · 2/5
Odds 1.40 Odds via Bet365
Our estimate72%
This price needs71%
Expert analysis

Atletico and Fluminense Likely to Trade Goals

Atletico-MG create more chances in home matches where their attack produces steady output. Fluminense maintain a reliable scoring rate even in away fixtures despite modest clean sheet numbers. Both teams concede around one goal per game on average which opens the door for multiple strikes overall. Head to head results show goals appearing in most meetings though high volume games remain infrequent. Recent sequences for each side feature regular involvement from forwards and limited shutouts. These patterns together point toward a match that clears the one and a half goal mark.

AcePredictor Analysis by AcePredictor 73.2% win rate
Result
3–1 WON

Our pick “Over 1.5 Goals” at odds 1.40 won — final score 3–1.

Match timeline
  1. First half
  2. Alan Franco 19'
  3. Second half
  4. Otávio Henrique Passos Santos 52'
  5. Reinier Jesus Carvalho assist Tomás Cuello 61'
  6. Kevin Serna ↓ Agustín Canobbio 61'
  7. Hércules Pereira do Nascimento ↓ Luciano Acosta 61'
  8. Tomás Cuello 63'
  9. Mamady Cisse ↓ Kevin Castaño 65'
  10. Maycon de Andrade Barberan ↓ Alan Franco 65'
  11. Rodrigo Castillo 69'
  12. Gustavo Scarpa ↓ Bernard Anício Caldeira Duarte 70'
  13. Igor Gomes ↓ Tomás Cuello 70'
  14. Paulo Henrique Chagas de Lima ↓ Otávio Henrique Passos Santos 72'
  15. Riquelme Felipe·Silva de Almeida ↓ Jefferson David Savarino Quintero 72'
  16. Mateo Cassierra ↓ Reinier Jesus Carvalho 78'
  17. Vitor Fernandes Chaves Teixeira assist Mateo Cassierra 81'
  18. Rodrigo Castillo assist Kevin Serna 90'
  19. Jemmes Bruno Ribeiro Da Silva ↓ Julio César Lima Fidelis 90+1'
This season
Atletico-MG Fluminense
Over 2.5 goals 20% 19%
Clean sheet 24% 19%
Failed to score 36% 12%
Scored per game 1.3 1.5
Conceded per game 1.2 1.2
Scored home / away 1.7 / 0.9 1.7 / 1.3

Across 25 and 26 matches played this season.

League table position
# Team PWDLPts
3 ATL Atletico Paranaense 26 13 6 7 45
4 FLU Fluminense ▲ 26 12 9 5 45
5 BAH Bahia 26 11 10 5 43
6 CRU Cruzeiro 26 12 6 8 42
7 COR Coritiba 26 10 7 9 37
8 ATL Atletico-MG ▲ 25 10 6 9 36
9 RBB RB Bragantino 25 10 5 10 35
Recent form · last 5 finished matches
Atletico-MG DDWWL
D @ Internacional 0–0 Aug 22
D @ Cruzeiro 1–1 Aug 26
W vs Vitoria 2–1 Aug 29
W vs Cruzeiro 2–1 Sep 2
L @ Sao Paulo 0–2 Sep 5
Fluminense DWDWW
D @ Independ. Rivadavia 1–1 Aug 18
W vs Remo 2–1 Aug 22
D @ Atletico Paranaense 3–3 Aug 30
W vs Vasco DA Gama 1–0 Sep 6
W vs Platense 2–0 Sep 8
Goals trend · last 5 matches
Atletico-MG
Scored 1.0 avg
0 1 2 2 0
Conceded 1.0 avg
0 1 1 1 2
Fluminense
Scored 1.8 avg
1 2 3 1 2
Conceded 1.0 avg
1 1 3 0 0
Head-to-head · last meetings
4 Atletico-MG
2 Draws
4 Fluminense FC
Mar 2026 Fluminense 1–0 Atletico-MG Fluminense
Oct 2025 Fluminense 3–0 Atletico-MG Fluminense
May 2025 Atletico-MG 3–2 Fluminense Atletico-MG
Sep 2024 Atletico-MG 2–0 Fluminense Atletico-MG
Sep 2024 Fluminense 1–0 Atletico-MG Fluminense

Over 2.5 goals in 3 of the last 10 meetings.

Confirmed lineups
Atletico-MG 4-2-3-1
  • 1 Gabriel Delfim G
  • 2 Natanael D
  • 40 Vitão D
  • 14 Vitor Hugo D
  • 36 K. Pascini D
  • 15 K. Castaño M
  • 21 A. Franco M
  • 28 T. Cuello M
  • 7 Fred M
  • 11 Bernard M
  • 19 Reinier F
Bench Alexsander, M. Cassierra, Mamady Cisse, Dudu, Gustavo Scarpa, Igor Gomes, Renan Lodi, Lyanco, Maycon, A. Minda, A. Preciado, Robert

E. Domínguez

Fluminense 4-2-3-1
  • 1 Fábio G
  • 46 Julio Fidelis D
  • 21 Igor Rabello D
  • 22 J. Freytes D
  • 13 Guilherme Arana D
  • 16 Nonato M
  • 94 Otávio M
  • 17 A. Canobbio M
  • 32 L. Acosta M
  • 11 J. Savarino M
  • 19 R. Castillo F
Bench Wesley Nata, Vitor Eudes, K. Serna, Riquelme, Renê, PH Ganso, J. Millán, Martinelli, Jemmes, Hércules, Ruan Sales Oliveira

Marcão

Team news · injuries & suspensions
Atletico-MG
  • OUT Alexsander Suspended
  • OUT T. Borbas Muscle Injury
  • OUT Everson Foot Injury
  • OUT T. Perez Injury
  • OUT Ruan Tressoldi Muscle Injury
  • DOUBT L. Duarte Hamstring Injury
  • OUT Alexsander Suspended
  • OUT T. Borbas Muscle Injury
  • OUT Everson Foot Injury
  • OUT T. Perez Injury
  • OUT Ruan Tressoldi Muscle Injury
  • DOUBT L. Duarte Hamstring Injury
Fluminense FC
  • OUT Alisson Hip Injury
  • OUT G. Cano Injury
  • OUT Hulk Inactive
  • OUT Ignacio Injury
  • OUT John Kennedy Knee Injury
  • OUT Matheus Reis Knee Injury
  • OUT Samuel Xavier Shoulder Injury
  • OUT Thiago Silva Injury
  • OUT Alisson Hip Injury
  • OUT G. Cano Injury
  • OUT Hulk Inactive
  • OUT Ignacio Injury
  • OUT John Kennedy Knee Injury
  • OUT Matheus Reis Knee Injury
  • OUT Samuel Xavier Shoulder Injury
  • OUT Thiago Silva Injury